Change is inevitable. The shift towards single-pilot commercial operations is not a matter of if, but when. Despite opposition from unions, associations, and lobbying efforts, the relentless pursuit of profit will prevail. When has profit ever yielded to change?

It will happen because profits must be increased. The general public is oblivious to how much it costs to form a pilot—money, work, and years of practice. Then everything is reloaded: yearly checks, practice, training…But the same general public is willing to accept a single person at the controls. It's been giving its acceptance for years. It is a matter of trust. Trains, subways, busses, taxis, lorries, cranes, bulldozers, you name it—a single driver or operator.

It is a trust matter. People trust people. We trust the people who built our houses (that they would not come down on us). We trust the mechanic who repaired our car (and that the brakes are good), and we trust the other drivers in traffic. We trust, we trust, we trust. Why not trust a single pilot when, nowadays, technology allows planes to be flown automatically, and pilots are mostly technical managers? The seat and pants times are long since gone. There are AFMs (Aircraft Flight Manuals) advising engaging the autopilot as soon as possible after take-off, as the machine will fly itself better than a human pilot would control it.

Under these circumstances, the industry's estimates of how many new pilots are needed are highly exaggerated. The estimated number of pilots for the next few years may be correct, but this may be the path to unemployment in the long term. Today's estimates are based on today's industry requirements, not the future. Aspiring pilots, beware! Don't get yourselves lured. Better study something that has a future. Renewables, engineering, food, social sciences, AI.

Soon, sooner than you think, a small plastic box containing circuitry will take your seat in the cockpit.